# 第三册 Lesson 51 Predicting the future 预测未来

## 一、课文原文

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.

In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.

Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.

## 二、重点词汇详解

| 单词 | 音标 | 词性 | 释义 | 用法说明 |
|------|------|------|------|----------|
| notoriously | /nəʊˈtɔːriəsli/ | adv. | 众所周知地 | notoriously difficult 出了名的困难 |
| mainframe | /ˈmeɪnfreɪm/ | n. | 大型主机 | mainframe computers 大型计算机 |
| primitive | /ˈprɪmɪtɪv/ | adj. | 原始的，简陋的 | a primitive machine 简陋的机器 |
| launch | /lɔːntʃ/ | v. | 推出，发行 | launched in the USA 在美国推出 |
| humble | /ˈhʌmbl/ | adj. | 谦卑的，不起眼的 | humble beginnings 不起眼的起步 |
| user-friendly | /ˌjuːzə ˈfrendli/ | adj. | 用户友好的 | user-friendly computers 易用的电脑 |
| dismiss | /dɪsˈmɪs/ | v. | 不予考虑，摒弃 | dismissed the idea 不予考虑这个想法 |
| foresee | /fɔːˈsiː/ | v. | 预见 | foresaw a time 预见到一个时代 |
| diagnose | /ˈdaɪəɡnəʊz/ | v. | 诊断 | diagnose illnesses 诊断疾病 |
| relieve | /rɪˈliːv/ | v. | 减轻，解除 | relieve sb. of 减轻某人的…… |
| commonplace | /ˈkɒmənpleɪs/ | adj. | 平常的，不足为奇的 | have become commonplace 已成为寻常事物 |
| multimedia | /ˌmʌltɪˈmiːdiə/ | adj. | 多媒体的 | multimedia machines 多媒体机器 |

## 三、语法知识点

### 1. could have done 表示对过去的推测

> **Who could have imagined**...that computers **would be** as common...?

could have done表示过去可能做到但实际没做到的事，或对过去的推测。

### 2. when引导的并列定语从句

> Bagrit foresaw a time **when** computers would be small enough..., **when** they would be capable of..., **when** they would be used in hospitals..., **when** they would relieve...

四个when从句并列修饰a time，构成排比结构。

### 3. Nor引起的倒装

> **Nor could he have foreseen** how we could use the Internet...

nor置于句首，主谓部分倒装。

### 4. the + 比较级..., the + 比较级...

> Computers have become **smaller and smaller**, **more and more powerful** and **cheaper and cheaper**.

比较级叠用表示"越来越……"。

## 四、重点句型分析

### 1. as common as 和……一样常见
> Computers would be **as common** in people's homes **as** TV sets.

### 2. point the way to 指明了方向
> It **pointed the way to** the future.

### 3. take over 接管，取代
> Many of their functions have been **taken over** by small powerful personal computers.

### 4. 长难句分析
> Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to.

Nor倒装；how引导宾语从句；so引导结果状语从句；if引导条件从句。

## 五、课文翻译

预测未来是出了名的困难。例如，在20世纪70年代中期，谁能想到到20世纪末，电脑会像电视机一样在普通人家里普及？在70年代，电脑已经相当常见，但仅限于大企业、政府部门和大型机构。这些就是所谓的大型主机。大型计算机确实非常庞大，通常占据整个空调房间，需要全职技术人员维护，运行专门编写的软件。虽然这些大型机器仍然存在，但它们的许多功能已经被被称为PC的小型强大的个人电脑所取代。

1975年，一台叫做Altair的简陋机器在美国推出。它可以恰当地被称为第一台"家用电脑"，它指明了未来的方向。随后，在70年代末，一种叫做Apple的机器出现了。80年代初，计算机巨头IBM生产了世界上第一台个人电脑。它运行在一个叫做DOS的"操作系统"上，这个系统是由当时一家名叫微软的小公司开发的。IBM个人电脑被广泛仿制。从那些不起眼的起步开始，我们见证了如今广泛使用的用户友好的家用电脑和多媒体机器的发展。

考虑到这些发展是如此之近，就更令人惊叹了：早在20世纪60年代，一个叫莱昂·巴格里特的英国人就能够预测出我们今天所知的一些电脑用途。巴格里特摒弃了电脑会学会自己"思考"并"统治世界"的观点，而这种观点是当时人们喜欢相信的。巴格里特预见到了这样一个时代：电脑会小到可以拿在手中，它们能提供交通堵塞的信息并建议替代路线，它们将在医院里帮助医生诊断疾病，它们将使办公室职员和会计摆脱枯燥重复的文书工作。所有这些电脑用途都已变得司空见惯。当然，莱昂·巴格里特不可能预见到互联网的发展，这个全球系统使我们能够通过连接到电话网络的电脑与世界任何地方的任何人即时通讯。他也不可能预见到我们如何利用互联网获取关于任何已知学科的信息，这样我们就可以在家里的屏幕上阅读，甚至如果愿意的话还可以打印出来。电脑变得越来越小、越来越强大、越来越便宜。这就是使莱昂·巴格里特的预测格外令人惊叹的原因。如果他，或者像他一样的人，今天还活着，他也许能告诉我们未来五十年会有什么期待。

## 六、语言点精讲

### 写作手法
1. **历史叙述**：以计算机发展史为线索，从70年代到90年代
2. **排比结构**：四个when从句构成排比，气势磅礴
3. **对比论证**：过去预测vs现在现实，突出预测的准确性

### 文化背景
- Altair 8800（1975）被认为是第一台个人电脑
- Apple II（1977）是第一台大规模生产的个人电脑
- IBM PC（1981）确立了PC的标准架构
- Leon Bagrit是英国工业家，1965年发表了关于电脑未来的演讲

## 七、课后练习要点

1. **情态动词**：could have done表推测
2. **排比结构**：when引导的并列定语从句
3. **倒装句**：Nor引起的倒装
4. **写作练习**：预测一项技术在未来五十年的发展

## 八、本课小结

本课回顾了计算机发展史并赞扬了Leon Bagrit的远见。语法重点是could have done推测、when并列定语从句和Nor倒装。词汇方面掌握notoriously、mainframe、dismiss、foresee、commonplace等核心词。写作上学习排比结构和历史叙述。